Photo : TASS/AFP
22 July 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #575
War in Ukraine: Day 512
By Sneha Surendran
War on the Ground
On 19 July, NPR reported that following Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative, concerns around food security have increased, particularly in food-insecure countries. Kenya termed Russia’s decision as a “stab in the back” while Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General said that it will have an impact on people in need everywhere. Grain prices have started changing since Russia’s withdrew. On 19 July, Moscow said that ships in the Black Sea going to Ukraine’s ports would be treated as transporting military supplies.
On 21 July, a UN official said that reports of sea mines in the Black Sea were concerning and stated: “Threats regarding potential targeting of civilian vessels navigating in the Black Sea waters are unacceptable.” Meanwhile, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UN said that his government was negotiating means to deliver grain to people in need, stating: “We do not use grain as weaponized means of foreign policy or waging war.” Ukraine has issued alerts to ships en route to Russia-controlled ports. On 21 July, Russia promised to address the concerns of the African nations regarding the stoppage of grain supply at an upcoming summit.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 21 July, a bill that proposed raising the minimum age for military conscription from 18 to 21 in Russia kept the lower age limit unchanged. However, the upper age limit was increased from 27 to 30. Andrei Kartapolov, co-author of the bill and the chairman of the Defense Committee of the lower house justified this, stating: “We decided to keep the lower draft age limit at 18 years because a lot of young men want to serve at 18.” Once the bill is adopted, it will come into effect from the spring of 2024.
On 21 July, Igor Girkin, a former KGB officer and a pro-war blogger in Russia was arrested by authorities. His criticism of the Russian state and military’s failings in Ukraine had been ongoing for some time. On 18 July, he reportedly condemned Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President in an online post, writing: “For 23 years, the country was led by a lowlife who managed to ‘blow dust in the eyes’ of a significant part of the population.” According to reports, he has been charged with “extremist activity.”
On 21 July, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President warned Poland that any conflict with Belarus would be taken as an attack against Russia. He said that Poland was looking to gain territory, stating: “It is well known that they also dream of the Belarusian lands.” The statements come after Poland moved to station troops at its eastern borders on 19 July, following the arrival of Wagner troops in Belarus.
On 21 July, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that the navy held exercises including the “live firing of anti-ship cruise missiles at the target ship” in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. According to further statements, the navy also conducted exercises on isolating the area and detaining enemy ships.
The West view
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 July, Poland decided to station military units at their eastern borders following the news regarding the arrival of Wagner troops in neighbouring Belarus. On 19 July, a video release showed Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s head, extending a welcome to his troops, saying that they would be training the Belarusian army but would not be involved in the Ukraine war anymore. On 20 July, Belarus’s Defence Ministry announced that its special forces were receiving trainnig from Wagner fighters close to the borders with Poland. A Polish official stated: “Training or joint exercises of the Belarusian army and the Wagner Group is undoubtedly a provocation.”
On 21 July, the White House National Security Advisor said that currently there is no involvement of the Wagner mercenary troops in Ukraine. On 19 July, a video of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s leader had shown him welcoming his troops to Belarus, stating that they would no longer be fighting the war in Ukraine.
On 21 July, Bulgaria’s parliament agreed to dispatch around 100 armoured vehicles to Ukraine. The vehicles are Soviet-designed BTR armoured personnel carriers and have not been used yet. According to the official statement: “Bulgaria no longer needs this equipment, which can provide valuable support to Ukraine in its battle to preserve its independence and territorial integrity.”
On 21 July, The Washington Post reported that Russia conducted naval exercises in the Black Sea and also attacked an agricultural facility in the port of Odessa, destroying stored grains. The UN Security Council convened on 21 July to deliberate on Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal. Here, the US Ambassador to the UN stated: “The United States has information that the Russian military may expand its targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian shipping” and raised an alert of possible mines in the Black Sea.
References
Andrew Connelly, “Russia's nixing of Ukraine grain deal deepens worries about global food supply,” NPR, 19 July 2023
“Some will starve, many may die," U.N. warns after Russia pulls out of grain deal,” CBS News, 21 July
“Russia Backtracks on Pledge to Raise Minimum Draft Age,” The Moscow Times, 21 July 2023
Mick Krever, Nathan Hodge, Olga Voitovych, Uliana Pavlova, Josh Pennington, “Pro-war Russian blogger who called Putin a ‘lowlife’ arrested in Moscow,” CNN, 21 July 2023
“Putin accuses Poland of having territorial ambitions in former Soviet Union,” Alarabiya News, 21 July 2023
“Russian Navy Holds Live Fire 'Exercise' in Black Sea,” The Moscow Times, 21 July 2023
“Poland to move soldiers to east of country due to Wagner risks, state news agency reports,” Reuters, 21 July 2023
“Wagner is not fighting in Ukraine at present, says White House's Sullivan,” Reuters, 22 July 2023
“Bulgaria to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine for the first time,” The Brussels Times, 22 July 2023
Kelsey Ables, Ellen Francis, Claire Parker, Mikhail Klimentov, “Ukraine live briefing: Russia strikes Odessa amid Black Sea tensions; U.S. warns of plans to attack civilian shipping,” The Washington Post, 21 July 2023
IN BRIEF
By Genesy Balasingam
REGIONAL
High temperatures expected to continue in Greece
On 22 July, meteorologists warned Greece about the soaring temperatures that could climb as high as 45C (113F).Warnings of very high new blazes across the country have been issued by emergencies and civil protection officials and people are advised to stay home.The worst-hit areas includes Western Attica , along with the island of Rhodes.Various firefighting planes from neighbouring Turkey, France and Italy and more than 200 firefighters from Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria have been sent in for help by EU partners. (“Europe heatwave: Temperatures to soar in Greece as fires still burn,” BBC, 22 July 2023)
Finland sent aid to Ukraine to vanquish water shortage
On 21 July,Finland reportedly has sent water purification materials, water containers, pumps and intensive chlorination units to Ukraine to help cope up with destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its side effects .In addition, Ukraine has been assisted with various other new shipments of water production materials,wastewater purification equipment, generators, ambulances and other vehicles, hospital beds for the protection of cultural heritage.(“Finland sends material assistance to ensure water supply in Ukraine,”Finish Government, valtioneuvosto.fi, 21 July 2023)
Iran and Sweden cut diplomatic ties due to Quran row
On 21 July, Stockholm apologised amid fears that Turkey would postpone lifting its Nato veto over the mutilation of a sacred book.Thousands of Muslims protested throughout Muslim-majority countries in response to a second incident involving the destruction of the Qur'an in Sweden.The incident left the Swedish government remorseful and fearful that the uproar in the Middle East will delay Turkey withdrawing its veto on Sweden's Nato membership.(Patrick Wintour, “Protests across Muslim nations after Sweden allows second attack on Qur’an,” The Guardian, 21 July 2023)
New Era ahead for UN says Guterres
On 21 July, Antonio Guterres UN secretary-General told the world’s nations that multipolar era has already been marked by the highest level of geopolitical tensions and major power competition in decades.Guterres introduced his “New Agenda for Peace'' as UNs attempt to address the new threats to diplomats. Guterres emphasised that the driving force for a new multilateralism must be diplomacy and reiterated the importance of preserving multilateralism. (“UN chief says the world is in a new era marked by the highest major power competition in decades,” Associated Press, 21 July 2023)